The 2026 'super' El Niño and its effects around the world

Active · last development Oct 1: “This year's El Niño looks a lot like 1997. What happened then?”

An El Niño, the periodic warming of the Pacific that shifts weather around the world, formed in June 2026 and by September had become what forecasters called a "super" El Niño, widely expected to be the strongest on record.[1][2] It has been blamed for deadly floods in Chile, drought that forced the Panama Canal to cut traffic and the first September without an Atlantic hurricane in more than 30 years, and one study projected that its heat could kill more than 450,000 people by February.[3][4][5][6]

Photo from MyStateline, with '100% to 99% chance' El Niño lasts 6 months: What does that mean for you? (Sep 27), the story with the most independent sources this week.
What this arc covers

The El Niño that formed in the Pacific in June 2026 and grew into what forecasters called a 'super' El Niño, possibly the strongest on record: the forecasts of its strength, the record ocean heat, its effect on the Atlantic hurricane season, the floods, droughts and heat from Latin America to Asia, the Panama Canal's shipping cuts, the projections of heat deaths, and the preparations in California and elsewhere for the winter ahead.

Earliest story we hold Jun 11, 2026 · 46 stories · 101 independent sources (counted once each) · 112 days

Part ofNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationColoradoUnited NationsGavin NewsomLouisianaMalibuFloridaMassachusetts

Background

US meteorologists announced in June 2026 that an El Niño, the natural warming of parts of the Pacific that changes weather around the globe, had formed and was expected to reach historic strength.[1] The World Meteorological Organization warned in July that it would quickly become a strong event,[7] and by August forecasters gave it at least a 90% chance of reaching the "very strong" category, possibly the strongest since records began in 1950.[8] Britain's national weather agency said it could make 2027 the hottest year on record.[9] In September, forecasters said it had turned "super."[2]

Its effects arrived early. Weeklong rainstorms in Chile blamed on El Niño killed at least 10 people in July,[3] the Panama Canal cut daily ship transits by more than a tenth because of low rainfall,[4] and the world's oceans reached their highest average surface temperature on record in August.[10] Forecasters lowered their Atlantic hurricane outlook,[11] and in September the Atlantic produced no hurricane for the first time in more than 30 years.[5] Experts warned of drought across Asia that could raise food prices worldwide.[12]

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño was "adding fuel to a planet already on fire,"[13] and a new study found that human-caused warming is making El Niño events stronger.[14] A Climate Impact Lab report estimated that its extra heat could kill more than 450,000 people by February, with the greatest danger in places that are already hot and relatively poor.[6] California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in September ahead of the winter storm season,[15] and climate models showed El Niño was almost certain to last into the spring of 2027.[16] Many of the effects described here are forecasts and projections rather than measured outcomes.

Supporting stories (16)
  1. El Niño is here and scientists fear it’ll be big, bad, and costly with heat, floods, droughts, fires
  2. Super El Niño is actually here now, and it’s only going to get stronger
  3. Weeklong rainstorms in Chile blamed on El Nino kill at least 10 and trigger flash floods
  4. Panama Canal to reduce shipping over El Niño-fueled drought
  5. El Niño just gave us the first no-hurricane September in decades. How long can the Atlantic shutout last?
  6. Super-sized El Niño could cause more than 450,000 heat deaths by February, study suggests
  7. El Nino set to be 'strong', UN warns
  8. 'Super' El Niño may be strongest since 1950. When will it peak, hit the US?
  9. World must look to the past to prepare for likely unprecedented El Niño
  10. World's oceans hit highest temperature on record as El Niño grows
  11. Researchers scale down hurricane season forecast ahead of 'powerful' El Niño
  12. Worsening El Nino threatens Asia with drought, potentially raising food prices globally
  13. UN, scientists warn that strong El Nino will add fuel to 'a planet already on fire'
  14. As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos
  15. Newsom declares state of emergency for California ahead of super El Niño storm season
  16. '100% to 99% chance' El Niño lasts 6 months: What does that mean for you?

Overview updated Oct 1, 2026

Where it standsnewest first · each bar runs left to right by leaning

Oct 1This year's El Niño looks a lot like 1997. What happened then?15 articles · 6 independent sources
0 left, 2 center, 0 right
Oct 1Studying this super El Niño could save lives. NOAA is scaling back research2 articles · 2 independent sources
1 left, 0 center, 0 right
Oct 1El Niño just gave us the first no-hurricane September in decades. How long can the Atlantic shutout last?8 articles · 8 independent sources
0 left, 1 center, 0 right

Key momentsthe most covered; every story is below

  1. Jul 8 – 9Researchers scale down hurricane season forecast ahead of 'powerful' El Niño26 articles · 15 independent sources
  2. Jul 9 – 10El Nino powers up as forecasters predict historic strength and a rainier winter for the US South12 articles · 12 independent sources
  3. Jul 31 – Aug 2UN, scientists warn that strong El Nino will add fuel to 'a planet already on fire'15 articles · 14 independent sources
  4. Aug 13 – 14'Super' El Niño may be strongest since 1950. When will it peak, hit the US?30 articles · 19 independent sources
  5. Aug 27 – 31As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos19 articles · 17 independent sources
    1. Aug 27El Niño events are becoming stronger as the world warms
    2. Aug 28Study: Climate change might intensify El Ninos
  6. Sep 21 – 23Newsom declares state of emergency for California ahead of super El Niño storm season45 articles · 28 independent sources
  7. Sep 23 – 25Super-sized El Niño could cause more than 450,000 heat deaths by February, study suggests51 articles · 27 independent sources
    1. Sep 23Super-strong El Niño could lead to 450K deaths. Map shows the states hit hardest
    2. Sep 25El Niño’s Estimated Death Toll From Extreme Heat Alone: 451,000 by February

Who covered it, over timeindependent sources per week, by side

Jun 8Jun 29Jul 20Aug 17Sep 7Sep 28

LeftCenterRight

Point at or tap a week to see its count by side.

Every week as a table
Week ofLeftCenterRightArticles
Jun 8, 20260215
Jun 29, 202605110
Jul 6, 2026111243
Jul 13, 202607048
Jul 20, 202614135
Jul 27, 202614120
Aug 10, 202656034
Aug 17, 202617036
Aug 24, 2026312134
Aug 31, 202602014
Sep 7, 202603022
Sep 14, 202604010
Sep 21, 20268313144
Sep 28, 202625030

Stories before June 28, 2026 come from archived pages, so who covered them is limited to the outlets we recovered for that period.

21% left · 70% center · 9% right of 101 independent sources among the outlets we track, across 46 stories.

Every storyoldest first

  1. June 2026

  2. July 2026

    Jul 1– 2A marine heat wave caused seabird deaths off California. El Nino could worsen the die-off8 articles · 8 independent sources
    0 left, 3 center, 0 right
  3. Jul 3– 4El Nino set to be 'strong', UN warns4 articles · 4 independent sources
    0 left, 2 center, 1 right
  4. Jul 7Brewing El Niño and roasting oceans push planet into 'uncharted territory' for heat5 articles · 2 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  5. Jul 8– 9Researchers scale down hurricane season forecast ahead of 'powerful' El Niño26 articles · 15 independent sources
    1 left, 8 center, 2 right
  6. Jul 9– 10El Nino powers up as forecasters predict historic strength and a rainier winter for the US South12 articles · 12 independent sources
    0 left, 2 center, 0 right
  7. Jul 13– 14'Super' El Niño now predicted to be even stronger and longer. How will it impact you?18 articles · 4 independent sources
    0 left, 3 center, 0 right
  8. Jul 16– 20'Rare' La Niña may form in the Atlantic at the same time as this year's 'super' El Niño19 articles · 6 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  9. Jul 17Latin American governments prepare for El Nino as drought, floods and heat loom5 articles · 5 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  10. Jul 18Signs of El Niño are already appearing in the Atlantic8 articles · 8 independent sources
    0 left, 2 center, 0 right
  11. Jul 21Weeklong rainstorms in Chile blamed on El Nino kill at least 10 and trigger flash floods5 articles · 5 independent sources
    1 left, 0 center, 0 right
  12. Jul 21– 22El Nino brings a dose of ‘cautious optimism’ to Colorado rain, snow forecasts6 articles · 6 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  13. Jul 22– 26As North America grapples with destructive wildfires, ‘super’ El Niño may offer hope3 articles · 3 independent sources
    0 left, 0 center, 1 right
  14. Jul 26'Mini Dust Bowl' could be forming in the US, expert warns. Will El Niño make it worse?20 articles · 6 independent sources
    0 left, 2 center, 0 right
  15. Jul 28Why El Niño's promise of a quieter hurricane season may not be good news for insurers6 articles · 1 independent sources
    1 left, 1 center, 1 right
  16. Jul 31– Aug 2UN, scientists warn that strong El Nino will add fuel to 'a planet already on fire'15 articles · 14 independent sources
    0 left, 3 center, 0 right

  17. August 2026

    Aug 7– 10El Niño could bring highest sea levels ever recorded to the California coast5 articles · 5 independent sources
    2 left, 1 center, 0 right
  18. Aug 13– 14'Super' El Niño may be strongest since 1950. When will it peak, hit the US?30 articles · 19 independent sources
    3 left, 5 center, 0 right
  19. Aug 20– 22NOAA releases fall weather predictions for all 50 states as El Niño grows stronger25 articles · 6 independent sources
    0 left, 3 center, 0 right
  20. Aug 20– 22Panama Canal to reduce shipping over El Niño-fueled drought7 articles · 6 independent sources
    0 left, 4 center, 0 right
  21. Aug 21– 23World must look to the past to prepare for likely unprecedented El Niño9 articles · 6 independent sources
    1 left, 3 center, 0 right
  22. Aug 24– 26World's oceans hit highest temperature on record as El Niño grows8 articles · 8 independent sources
    2 left, 3 center, 1 right
  23. Aug 25Here’s how El Niño could devastate California — again3 articles · 3 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  24. Aug 25– 26Colorado’s fall outlook fuels hope for early-season snowfall as El Nino strengthens across the High Country6 articles · 6 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  25. Aug 27– 31As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos19 articles · 17 independent sources
    2 left, 9 center, 0 right

  26. September 2026

    Sep 2Map shows where the 2026 'super' El Niño could bring lots of rain, extreme drought14 articles · 6 independent sources
    0 left, 2 center, 0 right
  28. Sep 13– 14Super El Niño is actually here now, and it’s only going to get stronger9 articles · 9 independent sources
    0 left, 3 center, 0 right
  29. Sep 20– 21Beach erosion worsening in Malibu as Newsom issues El Niño state of emergency3 articles · 2 independent sources
    0 left, 2 center, 0 right
  30. Sep 21– 24As cities prepare for 2026’s super El Niño, some crucial blind spots can’t be ignored3 articles · 3 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  31. Sep 21– 23Newsom declares state of emergency for California ahead of super El Niño storm season45 articles · 28 independent sources
    4 left, 14 center, 3 right
  32. Sep 21– 22Historic El Niño could mean a wetter start to Colorado’s winter — but the above-average snow might not stick around7 articles · 7 independent sources
    0 left, 3 center, 0 right
  33. Sep 22– 23Worsening El Nino threatens Asia with drought, potentially raising food prices globally5 articles · 5 independent sources
    1 left, 3 center, 0 right
  34. Sep 22– 23Long Beach declares local emergency over possibly strong El Niño season3 articles · 3 independent sources
    0 left, 3 center, 0 right
  35. Sep 23– 25Super-sized El Niño could cause more than 450,000 heat deaths by February, study suggests51 articles · 27 independent sources
    2 left, 8 center, 0 right
  36. Sep 24– 26What will ‘super’ El Nino bring to landlocked, parched Wyoming?6 articles · 4 independent sources
    0 left, 3 center, 0 right
  37. Sep 24– 251982 El Niño event could help Bay Area prepare for forecasted super El Niño2 articles · 1 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  38. Sep 26Marin County braces for potential El Niño storms and challenging winter2 articles · 1 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  39. Sep 26– 28California Faces Billions in Damages From El Niño Storms, Starting Now2 articles · 1 independent sources
    1 left, 0 center, 0 right
  40. Sep 27California needs water. El Nino might bring too much.2 articles · 2 independent sources
    1 left, 0 center, 0 right
  41. Sep 27'100% to 99% chance' El Niño lasts 6 months: What does that mean for you?22 articles · 8 independent sources
    0 left, 2 center, 0 right
  42. Sep 30'Very strong' El Niño could bring interesting weather this winter: How will it impact you?2 articles · 1 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right

  43. October 2026

    Oct 1Empty nets in Latin America as fish flee El Nino2 articles · 2 independent sources
    0 left, 2 center, 0 right
  44. Oct 1El Niño just gave us the first no-hurricane September in decades. How long can the Atlantic shutout last?8 articles · 8 independent sources
    0 left, 1 center, 0 right
  45. Oct 1Studying this super El Niño could save lives. NOAA is scaling back research2 articles · 2 independent sources
    1 left, 0 center, 0 right
  46. Oct 1This year's El Niño looks a lot like 1997. What happened then?15 articles · 6 independent sources
    0 left, 2 center, 0 right