State of Texas: One point separates Paxton, Talarico in Senate poll

Two candidates are running for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas: Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Recent polls show the race is extremely close, with the candidates separated by just one point, though some prediction markets have shifted in Talarico's favor.

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National story. 26 articles from 14 sources. Updated Aug 16, 2026.

Part of The 2026 Texas Senate race: James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton

How each side is putting it

Left

1 source
NJ.com / Star-LedgerLean Left· Aug 14, 2026

A tight race is brewing between Trump Republican and rising Democrat in red state: New poll

Center

10 sources
Ran by 5 outlets· CW 39 Houston, Border Report, +3 more
CW 39 HoustonCenter· Aug 16, 2026

State of Texas: One point separates Paxton, Talarico in Senate poll

Border ReportCenter· Aug 16, 2026

State of Texas: One point separates Paxton, Talarico in Senate poll

My High PlainsCenter· Aug 16, 2026

State of Texas: One point separates Paxton, Talarico in Senate poll

EverythinglubbockCenter· Aug 15, 2026

State of Texas: One point separates Paxton, Talarico in Senate poll

KXAN AustinCenter· Aug 15, 2026

State of Texas: One point separates Paxton, Talarico in Senate poll

Fox7 AustinCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Latest Paxton vs. Talarico polls

Ran by 8 outlets· Border Report, FOX8 WGHP, +6 more
Border ReportCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico locked in dead heat for Texas Senate: Poll

FOX8 WGHPCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico locked in dead heat for Texas Senate: Poll

WCBD News 2Center· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico locked in dead heat for Texas Senate: Poll

Mycham Plain ValleyCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico locked in dead heat for Texas Senate: Poll

Valley CentralCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico locked in dead heat for Texas Senate: Poll

KTSM 9 NewsCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico locked in dead heat for Texas Senate: Poll

Phl17Center· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico locked in dead heat for Texas Senate: Poll

The HillCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico locked in dead heat for Texas Senate: Poll

Ran by 4 outlets· Everythinglubbock, KTSM 9 News, +2 more
EverythinglubbockCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico still fighting tight Senate race, per latest Emerson-Nexstar poll

KTSM 9 NewsCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico still fighting tight Senate race, per latest Emerson-Nexstar poll

CW 39 HoustonCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico still fighting tight Senate race, per latest Emerson-Nexstar poll

KXAN AustinCenter· Aug 13, 2026

Paxton, Talarico still fighting tight Senate race, per latest Emerson-Nexstar poll

Ran by 3 outlets· KCEN Waco, KVUE, +1 more
KCEN WacoCenter· Aug 10, 2026

New poll shows Talarico with narrow lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race

KVUECenter· Aug 10, 2026

New poll shows Talarico with narrow lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race

KHOU HoustonCenter· Aug 10, 2026

New poll shows Talarico with narrow lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race

Right

3 sources
Breitbart NewsRight· Aug 16, 2026

Exclusive — Ken Paxton: ‘If We Lose Texas, the Senate’s Gone’

Breitbart NewsRight· Aug 13, 2026

Nolte: Poll Shows Ken Paxton Ahead of James ‘God Is Nonbinary’ Talarico

The Daily WireRight· Aug 13, 2026

Ken Paxton Gets Some Much Needed Good News In Race Against Talarico

The National PulseRight· Aug 13, 2026

DATA: MAGA Paxton Leads Woke Talarico in Tight Texas Senate Race.

The story so far

3 developments
  1. Aug 10New poll shows Talarico with narrow lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race
  2. Aug 13Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Latest Paxton vs. Talarico polls
  3. Aug 15State of Texas: One point separates Paxton, Talarico in Senate poll

Who covered each development

No new developments

Quiet for 63 days

Last development · Aug 15 — State of Texas: One point separates Paxton, Talarico in Senate poll

The bigger story